The few cannot control the many
Austria recently became the first EU country to make vaccinations mandatory for all adults above 18. I just checked some numbers, and the current coverage seems to be around 75%. To enforce the law, the government have decided on fines of 600 EUR up to a total of 3600 EUR per quarter. This move is interesting for several reasons, but the one that I find most interesting is that such a law will be completely impossible to enforce in practice on one condition: The ones who don’t want it simply need to say No, if their number is large enough.
Austria has a population of about 9 million people. That means that as of today – February 7th – 2,25 million people will be subject to a fine that will easily push anyone in the working class to bankruptcy. I am neither an economist nor a sociologist, but a society cannot survive if it crushes such a significant proportion of its population economically. It is simply impossible. The law will be enforced from March 15th from what I can tell, which means there is another month left to jab more people. Those who cannot pay the fine are probably more inclined succumb to the threat of bankruptcy. But still, I don’t believe that you can achieve 100% coverage by force, and however you look at it, there will be a lot of people that will not comply because the move contradicts their core values.
The practical implication of the law is that it is possible to buy your way out, if you are wealthy enough. A little fine of 3600 EUR per quarter is not even noticeable if you are part of the economical elite. Which is similar to how speeding tickets are enforced in Sweden by the way. The poorer you are, the harder you are punished. It seems to me that it would be fairer if these kinds of punishments were determined on your income level and not your social class. Some countries apply income-based fines on speeding which every now and then results in a news story about someone’s Ferrari being taken to pay the fine. If this principle would be with the vaccine mandate, it could perhaps result in a couple of confiscated mansions.
The polarization is strong on this issue, and this move by the Austrian government is probably like trying to put out a fire with gasoline. Let’s consider the possibility that by the 15th of March, the number of unvaccinated people is still counted in seven figures. What then? Is the state going to hammer down with brutal force while simultaneously as other European countries are busy opening up and scrapping all restrictions? That would be a proper pedagogical challenge if there ever was one. It is possible that the Austrian government has painted themselves into a corner here. If they back down now, they will lose face. If they enforce the mandate, they will lose face. With the latter option and a large enough unvaccinated population counted in millions and not thousands, they will lose more than their face. They will rip their society apart. If they do enforce the mandate, what are they going to do with the now “contagious criminals”? Strap them to a chair and jab them? Highly unlikely. Throw them into prison? Even if the looming threat of bankruptcy succeeds in increasing the rate above 75%, my guess is that it would overwhelm the prisons in no time at all. It makes no sense to me.
Even if the Austrian government are infallible saints, they are about to open a future possible pathway to Hell. I don’t know much about Austria, but these are crucial conversations that we need to have everywhere, because it affects us all. Never ever in the history of mankind has so much freedom been restricted for so many in such a short time. This is truly a pivotal point in the history of mankind. No-one has ever complied their way out of tyranny. And I don’t remember ever seeing a better example of that principle than Austria 2022. The few cannot control the many if they are united. It is absolutely necessary that the many remain divided and polarized. Tyranny isn’t imposed by a single blow. It’s the death by a thousand cuts. And what other word can you use to describe a law with profound consequences, that apparently lacks public support to such a large degree?
A little every day goes a long way.